April 14-16 Storm

Sorry if I have not been posting that must [Easter]

So here is my outlook for the upcoming April 14-16 storm.

Final Forecasts For April 10-12 Rainstorm

Hi Everyone,It is the day before the storm and I want to show you my final thoughts,And all of them.

Sympnosis
There will be a storm that produces rain for the Eastern Unites States from Friday,April 10,2009 Through Sunday,April 12,2009,It could produce rain,Thunderstorms and severe weather.

Timing Of Storm
It looks like this storm,Per observations and models will start in the Midwest/Ohio Valley areas by tommorrow morning and reach the Appalachians near midday,Next it will reach the big cities late in the day/early night around 6:00pm and it should be over for most by 00z Sunday,April 12,2009,So this will start tommorrow,Friday,April 10,2009 and end by Sunday,April 12,2009,So this is looking like a 18 hour storm for most folks.

Track Of Storm
For the track of the storm,It looks like the models are sending it through the east coast,Lets look at the 12z GFS model run for example,It has the low near the Olkahoma and Kansas boarder at 12 hours [0z Friday],Then at 18 hours [6z Friday] it has the low near the Arkansas and Missouri boarder,Later at 24 hours [12z Friday] it has the low just east of the 18 hour location,At 30 hours [18z Friday] the low is near Louisville,Kentucky,At 36 hours [0z Saturday] the low is slightly east of Cincinnati,At 42 hours [6z Saturday] the low is near Roanoke,Virginia,At 48 hours [12z Saturday] the low is near Salisbury,Maryland,And finnaly at 54 hours [18z Saturday] the low is off the coast near the 40/70 benchmark then rides out to sea,Remember that this is verbatim 12z GFS.

Precipitation
The precipitation of this storm is looking like this,Here is the 18z GFS model run[Ignore the temperatures].

6 hours [0z Friday]
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county006.gif

12 hours [6z Friday]
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county012.gif

18 hours [12z Friday] [Sorry about the difference]
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsp06thickpmsl_MA018.gif

24 hours [18z Friday]
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county024.gif

30 hours [0z Saturday]
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county030.gif

36 hours [6z Saturday]
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county036.gif

42 hours [12z Saturday]
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county042.gif

48 hours [18z Saturday]
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county048.gif

54 hours [0z Sunday]
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county054.gif

Total Precip
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsp72072.gif

As you can see the precip is reaching into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by 6z Fri,By 12z Fri precip is coming through the Appalachians and into mid Pennslyvania,But only drizzle like,At 18z Fri rain has reached the major cities except for boston and then has mainly light to moderate rain for the East Coast.

Thunderstorms/Severe Weather
Thunderstorms and Severe Weather shouldn't really be that much big of a factor,Especially for the Northeast.

Now here are the 18z GFS surface temperatures,which are an indicator for instability and lifting.

6 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps006.gif

12 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps012.gif

18 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps018.gif

24 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps024.gif

30 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps030.gif

36 hours [Once again sorry]
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs2mmaxtemps036.gif

42 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps042.gif

48 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps048.gif

54 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfspmsl10mwinds2mtemps054.gif

I am not buying the 40s in the Northern Mid Atlantic and Southern New Eangland,I am forecasting 40s in Northern and Mid New Eangland,50s in Southern New Eangland And The Northern Mid Atlantic and 60/70 in the Mid Atlantic/Southeast.

The cape for this storm is like this Verbatim 18z GFS

6 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsSurfaceCapeCINS006.gif

12 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsSurfaceCapeCINS012.gif

18 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsSurfaceCapeCINS018.gif

24 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsSurfaceCapeCINS024.gif

30 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsSurfaceCapeCINS030.gif

36 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsSurfaceCapeCINS036.gif

42 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsSurfaceCapeCINS042.gif

48 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsSurfaceCapeCINS048.gif

54 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsSurfaceCapeCINS054.gif

As you can see,Cape levels will only be high enough in the Southeast to produce any chance of severe weather.

Next up the lift [18z GFS]

6 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsLIBLwinds006.gif

12 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsLIBLwinds012.gif

18 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsLIBLwinds018.gif

24 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsLIBLwinds024.gif

30 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsLIBLwinds030.gif

36 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsLIBLwinds036.gif

42 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsLIBLwinds042.gif

48 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsLIBLwinds048.gif

54 hours
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsLIBLwinds054.gif

Here lift will get pretty high in the Southeast and even a little bit in the Mid Atlantic.

Now for instability,There shouldn't be too much because of Temperatures and Cloud Cover,by tommorrow morning a lot of the Northeast And Mid Atlantic will be rather cloudy and will prevent high Temperatures in the Daytime Heating area producing no Severe Weather although there could be a couple of thunderstorms in the Mid Atlantic with enough lifting and a little bit of instability possible.
The southeast on the other hand will be more succeptable to Thunderstorms And Severe Weather with Higher Temperatures,Less Cloud Cover in the morning,More Daytime Heating,More Instability,Higher Cape Values and More Lifting,This could create quite a bit of Thunderstorms with some being severe with mainly Gusty Winds as the main threat,although a isolated one with Hail should not be ruled out.

Maps And Forecast
Here is my rainfall map for the storm [Final Map]
C:\Users\NickBlizzard\Pictures\April 10-12 2009 Storm Rainfall Accumulations Map 3.jpg

And here is my map for thunderstorms/severe weather [Final Map]
C:\Users\NickBlizzard\Pictures\April 10-12 2009 Storm Thunder Map 1.jpg

Here is my thoughts on rainfall totals for the cities.

Boston MA:0.25 To 0.50
New York NY:0.50 To 0.75
Philadelphia PA:Near 0.50
Washington/Baltimore MD:0.25 To 0.50

Maximum rainfall totals from this storm could be 1.50.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So there is my forecast,the next storm that may be coming after this one is from Tuesday,April 14,2009 to Thursday,April 16,2009,I will look at that on Friday Or Saturday,until then take care and have a happy good Friday.

Update On April 10-12 Storm

The threat on the storm is continuing.



Here is the 18z GFS model run view of it.



42hrs

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06042.gif



48hrs

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06048.gif



54hrs

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06054.gif



60hrs

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06060.gif



66hrs

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06066.gifasternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06066.gif



72hrs

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp06072.gif



Total Precip

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfsp72078.gif



So looking at it all,the northern mid atlantic and the southern new england areas will get the heaviest precip.



Hence,here is my first precip map [Subject To Change]



















I will update again with a final map most likely tommorrow or early friday,Take Care.

First Look At April 10-12 Storm

There is a storm,Which is indicated on the 12z gfs run,that could bring some of the east coast pretty good rainfall in the time period of Friday,April 10,2009 to Sunday,April 12,2009

Here is the timing and precip of the storm per the 12z gfs run.

[2m temps]

72 hrs

78hrs

84hrs

90hrs

96hrs

102hrs

This would indicate a wide area of 0.50+ rain in the mid atlantic and southern new eangland verbatim 12z gfs.

Sorry if the placement is a little off,I am not that used to using blogger.[Sorry that 78hrs is missing]really want them to make this a little easier to use

Updates Tommorrow,Take Care

Welcome To East Coast Wx

Hi,my name is nick and here I will be doing forecasts based off models,telleconnectors and personal thoughts to forecast weather for the east coast.

There will be NO Wishcasting,Hyping Or Bittercasting here.

Enjoy!